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We're back at it again, cracking the code on all this financial stuff. Remember, we're in this together, breaking down the fancy jargon and making this whole money thing make sense. Swing by my Social Media - I keep the conversation going there with more insights and real-time updates.
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That being said, today we're going to talk about...
Where We Are in the Four-Year Cycle
I’m seeing a lot of people talk about the cycle potentially being over, and the bear market beginning already. This is not what I see at all, so I just wanted to give my take.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is tied to its halving events, which cut mining rewards and historically trigger supply-driven price shifts. The last halving was in April 2024, reducing the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. We’re now roughly 12 months post-halving, placing us in the early-to-mid phase of the current cycle (Cycle 5, 2024-2028). Historically:
Cycle 1 (2012-2016): Post-halving year (2013) saw BTC surge from $13 to $1,000, peaking 17-18 months after the halving.
Cycle 2 (2016-2020): After the 2016 halving, BTC rose from $650 to $19,700 by December 2017, peaking 17 months post-halving.
Cycle 3 (2020-2024): Post-2020 halving, BTC climbed from $9,000 to $69,000 by November 2021, peaking 18 months later, then crashed to $15,500 by late 2022.